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Kamis, 19 Juni 2014

Food of colonisation?!

The Māori Party weighs in on the anti-sugar brigade's latest campaign:
“In February this year, I had the honour of launching the discussion document to reduce sugar-sweetened beverage consumption in New Zealand,” says Tariana Turia, Māori Party Co-leader.
“Today we are pleased to endorse the six recommendations put forward by the panel, as an important platform for our ongoing policy in keeping whānau well.”
“As a party, we have promoted the view that excessive sugar intake is a social hazard. Consuming more than ten percent sugar in a daily food intake leads to a higher risk of dental problems as well as contributing to weight gain. We simply can’t afford to ignore a fatal addiction to sugar,” says Te Ururoa Flavell, Māori Party Co-leader.
“The Māori Party has championed a campaign to keep our families strong, healthy and intact by protecting them against activities or substances which are known to be hazardous to people’s health. Excessive sugar intake is another barrier to our health, as much as tobacco use, alcohol abuse and problem gambling harm.”
“I have talked to our families about sugar being the food of colonisation – a product which takes away from our abilities to focus on living healthily,” says Mrs Turia.
“We have already approached the National Government with a proposal to introduce excise tax on sugar sweetened beverages.
Sugar: the food of colonisation.

I understand that Civilisation VI, when it comes out, will have special sugar units that you can use to keep city-states compliant and to reduce rioting in cities you've just taken over. But only if you already have sugar as a resource and have worked them with plantations. And using too much sugar invites Godzilla attacks on the city later on.

Homer Simpson was right.

Kamis, 05 Juni 2014

A Nation of Sugar Criminals [Updated: Crampton's been punked]

Update: The CBC show that produced the report is satire. So everything below falls under the "Eric's been punked again" file. I blame both Josh Gans's and Alex Tabarrok's earlier tweeting of the story. Previously in the "Crampton's been punked" file: Jim Henson meets Ayn Rand.

Thanks to the CBC's @Geoff_Turner for the heads-up.

Original post follows below.



Last year, it was the heist from the Canadian Maple Syrup Cartel.

Now we find out that Canadians have been smuggling Kinder Surprise Eggs to the Americans.
A 500 ft. tunnel running from the outskirts of Abbotsford, B.C. to a shed in Sumas, WA was detected late last week by Dale Lawson while he was walking his dog: "Buster got into this weird looking shed," say Lawson, "he comes out with chocolate in his mouth." 

Lawson, worried that his dog could get sick, took the chocolate and found it contained a plastic capsule. "I thought maybe it was drugs but when I opened it up it was a little plastic fox dressed like a queen. I called the police right away."

Police arrived just as Melanie Russet, Marg Spooner and Lynn Dodwell emerged from the tunnel with flats of chocolate eggs. The three were taken into custody and more arrests on both sides of the border are expected.

It's estimated that up to 800,000 eggs cross the border every year and while there have yet to be any reported fatalities, it's only a matter of time before a child chokes on a tiny house with googly eyes or a pen shaped like a ski.
First off, people like Dale Lawson exemplify everything that's wrong with America. If your government is evil enough to ban children from getting chocolate eggs with toys inside, and you find a tunnel being used by heroic candy smugglers to bring Kinder Surprise to American kids, your first thought sure as heck oughtn't be "Hey, let's call the cops about this little plastic toy fox dressed like a queen." The nation that overthrew George III over trivial levels of taxation now produces people who call in the cops for chocolates. Did Patrick Henry really say, "If you see anything weird, report it immediately"?

But the story does help to remind us of the futility of some kinds of bans. If smugglers can make a buck by sneaking Kinder Surprise Eggs under the American border....

Selasa, 18 Maret 2014

Soda taxes revisited

Soda taxes don't do much to affect obesity. A new paper by Fletcher et al in Health Economics looks at effects of American soda taxes across U.S. states. While 'soda taxes' aren't common, differential sales taxes on soda aren't uncommon; soda is often exempted from generalised food exemptions from state-level sales taxes. Consequently, soda can have an effective tax rate of up to 12% more than other foods and non-alcoholic beverages, though the average was much lower.

They find that sales taxes have no statistically significant relationship to soda calorie intake and may increase consumption of calories from non-soda beverages. In one specification, they find that a one percentage point increase in the soda tax increases total daily caloric intake by 27.7 calories; I rather suspect that they're here picking up an endogeneity problem: governments will implement soda taxes when obesity is rising.

Supporters of soda taxes have suggested that tax hikes in the range experienced in the US will understate the potential effects of a much larger tax hike: if effects are non-linear, this is entirely possible. But Fletcher et al find zero evidence of non-linearities in tax effects within the range of US taxes. If there were some non-linearity, we'd expect there to be at least a little action in the quadratics and high-order polynomials; the linear specification fits best. But we can't rule out non-linearities that only kick in well outside of sample.

They'd previously found strong evidence of substitution effects among children and adolescents: taxes on soft drinks reduced soda consumption but induced an entirely offsetting increase in calories from other non-soda drinks. And recall that Klick et al found that relative prices of healthy and unhealthy foods didn't affect obesity either.

See also Paul Bedard at the Washington Examiner and Chris Snowdon.

Senin, 17 Februari 2014

HRC-backed? [Updated: Crampton's been trolled]

I'd interpreted New Zealand's Health Research Council's logo being all over the conference materials for the anti-sugar Fizz-2030 conference as indicating HRC support for the conference. Typically agencies exercise pretty strict control over the use of their branding and have to give permission for such uses.

In comments in my prior post, HRC Chief Exec Robin Olds corrected things, noting that while they have provided research grants to some of the people who were presenting, they were not supporting the conference. The conference's materials were up on the HRC website, but I expect that HRC mirrors a whole lot of health-related conference materials.

The HRC's logo being on the conference materials intrigued the NZ Taxpayers' Federation, though. Jordan Williams put out an OIA request. Robin Olds replied that,
"The HRC has never funded FIZZ, nor has it ever received a funding request (for research or otherwise from FIZZ. The HRC has funded research by individuals who identify themselves (on the website) as members of FIZZ. Such funding is through contracts with their host institution, for example the University of Auckland and the University of Otago."
In response to Jordan's asking what other support the Council has provided FIZZ, HRC replied "The HRC has provided no support to FIZZ."

Now that can't be entirely right, because HRC hosts FIZZ's materials on its website. Here's the conference programme, on the HRC website, link working as of 18 February. Here is a flyer advertising the conference keynote speakers, on the HRC website. Both of these have the HRC logo on them. This is why I thought that HRC was backing the conference: hosting the conference's materials on your website with your own logo on the conference's materials is a pretty strong signal of support. But, it's also possible that HRC just mirrors anything in that space and that FIZZ put the logo on without HRC's knowing about it. In that case, it's entirely possible for Olds honestly to reply that they didn't provide any support to FIZZ - he might not have known that the conference materials are mirrored on the HRC website, or he might not have interpreted hosting those materials as constituting support over and above the identical support HRC gives to other health-related conferences.

This version is supported by an email that the Taxpayers' Union reports that Robin Olds sent to the Taxpayers' Union:
“In a phone call to the conference organiser we pointed out that using our logo was inappropriate, given that [Fizz] did not seek our permission, and that some appeared to interpret the logo as the HRC endorsing the conference."
If the Taxpayers' Union is accurately reporting the email, then HRC is not supporting the conference and FIZZ was being a bit naughty in using the HRC logo.

And all of that makes this twitter exchange really interesting. [Update: I'm growing increasingly sure that @Fizz2030 is a parody account and that I have been successfully trolled. Kudos to whomever's done it. Details at the end of the post.]






I've pasted a screenshot at the bottom of the post in case anybody deletes anything. [Update: FIZZ reiterated its HRC backing in a couple other tweets.]

The Chief Exec of the HRC said they have never funded FIZZ and have provided no other support to FIZZ. FIZZ, on its Twitter account, says they have HRC/HPA/MOH backing for the FIZZ 2030 conference.

Now it's possible that FIZZ has just interpreted, for example, enthusiastic kudos from some in HRC (possible, I have no clue) as constituting HRC backing for the conference. Or maybe they've interpreted HRC's hosting of the conference materials as backing. But if it's something more than that, well, there's something interesting here. It'll be interesting to see how this plays out.

It's also odd that FIZZ's twitter rep interprets these questions as an attempt to shut down the conference. It would be pretty much impossible to stop the conference, unless they somehow managed to annoy the conference host, Auckland Uni, in the process. But even then it would be pretty rare for a conference to be canned at the last minute.

UPDATE: I no longer believe that Fizz2030 is the official Twitter account for the Fizz group's conference. In that case, there's no conflict in stories; I've just been successfully and magnificently trolled. Here's the evidence on either side:

Real: The account has 29 followers and include a bunch of folks affiliated with Fizz. @JustWaterNZ, Dr. Robyn Toomath, public health physicians, the Heart Foundation, and some media folks. Other folks on their side have been interacting with them as though they're real.

Fake: No link to their twitter account on the FIZZ website. When I scroll back through their account, I see some exchanges that are simply implausible. It's hard to tell what's parody any longer in this kind of space. Most of the tweets would be plausible either from a real account or a parody account; these have to be parody. Kudos to @JaninePaynter, whose radar seemed sharper than mine.

I'm rather sure I've been trolled. And magnificently. Excellent job, but you'll likely want to put "Parody Account" in your headers to avoid issues.

Update 2: @JaninePaynter reports she's had confirmation it's parody. Here is the list of some of @Fizz2030's followers as of 18 February, many of whom also must have reckoned that @Fizz2030 passed the Turing test (but some of whom might just follow-back by default).

I also think it's pretty funny that the trolling got caught not because of their over-the-top anti-sugar tweets, but rather because @JaninePayner's radar turned on when FIZZ tweeted "Support growing for tax on SSBs despite attacks on us by @TaxpayersUnion @EricCrampton @CarrickGraham", and mine turned on when they tweeted that their financial backing was none of anybody's business. 


Big Food

New Zealand's tell-people-what-to-eat campaigners have a busy week. 

Monday, the University of Otago at Wellington hosted a one-day session on the evils of "Big Food". Stuff covers it here; David Farrar nicely critiques things.

Here's one of the Otago presenters' policy recommendations, as noted in the Stuff piece:
Gabrielle Jenkin's advice to New Zealand's policymakers:
  • Ban advertising and marketing of unhealthy food.
  • Improve food labelling, ideally with a "traffic light" system.
  • Change planning policy so unhealthy food outlets are unable to set up near schools.
  • Outlet numbers should be restricted by population size.
  • Restrict unhealthy food in public institutions such as schools.
  • Install more public water fountains.
  • Make unhealthy food unaffordable, either by taxation or by subsidising healthy food.
  • Force "Big Food" to reduce salt, fat and sugar in products.
  • Restrict portion sizes, as New York tried with soft drink in 2013. 
Farrar uses the appropriate language in response.

Jenkin seems to particularly hate KFC:
Television shows such as The Biggest Loser, Downsize Me and Embarrassing Fat Bodies reinforced the personal responsibility message. "The message is ‘Get your big arse off the sofa', rather than ‘Stop the KFC opening across the road'."
However,some governments had stood up to Big Food. In Britain, manufacturers have been forced to reduce fat, sugar and salt, and New York's governor attempted to restrict portion sizes and introduce nutritional information in restaurants.
In New Zealand, politicians remained cowed by Big Food, she said. In deprived towns and suburbs, fast food outlets were so numerous as to be unavoidable.
"New Zealand is appalling. You're sniffing KFC wherever you go."
Maybe I'm weird, but I love the smell of KFC. It makes me so hungry every time I drive by one. I just wish there were one on campus.

And while you can totally get public choice models where interest groups are able to shift policy away from what the public wants, does it really seem like industry lobbying is the binding constraint here? KFC is delicious. Does it seem that likely that people who find KFC delicious would warmly welcome politicians who banned them from eating KFC? A median voter model seems by far the more plausible explanation of why KFC hasn't yet been banned here. John Key's National government campaigned against all the nanny state stuff. And while his government is happy to keep paying Otago and Auckland to churn out the 'ban stuff' studies and conferences, Key's not going to take on a new nanny initiative that doesn't have broad public support, unless it's a play to throw some support to ACT.

I wasn't at the BigFood shindig, but here are some reports from their twitter hashtag.


The big anti-sugar conference is coming up at Auckland Uni on Wednesday and Thursday. I expect that the news and talk radio will be intolerable for much of the week.

Otago used to own the "ban stuff" niche; now, Auckland and Otago seem to be competing with each other to see which can be the most vocal advocates of banning stuff. Rents predict entry I suppose.

Rabu, 22 Januari 2014

"An endgame to Sugar-Sweetened Beverages in NZ by 2025?"

Oh, the things that the Health Research Council helps support. [See update, below: support seems not to be financial.] See substantial update on HRC below.

Via Dave Guerin, I find that Auckland Uni is hosting a symposium: "Sugary Drink Free Pacific By 2030?" The press release notes Richard Johnson and Robert Lustig as keynotes. Lustig is famous for his "fructose is toxic" position; Johnson's pretty similar.

The first day's sessions will discuss just how evil sugar is. The second day's sessions will cover policies to reduce sugar, including a keynote from a guy who's eating a lot of sugar and making a movie about it, a talk by Tony Falkenstein advocating a soda tax, a talk on lessons for advocacy, and one called "An endgame to SSB [sugar-sweetened beverages] in NZ by 2025?"

Tony Falkenstein is likely the same Tony Falkenstein whose day job is putting water coolers and filters in NZ offices: they're called "Just Water". I doubt he has any particular expertise in soda taxes, other than that they hit competitor beverages. He's also the one helping organise some class action suit against Coke and the beverage companies. I'd thought that part of the deal with the Accident Compensation Commission was that New Zealand didn't really have class action liability suits; I expect that it's largely a publicity stunt for Falkenstein's water company. I think we had one of his water coolers before we moved offices; I think I can see a budget line item that the Department can pretty quickly do away with as part of our ongoing budget cuts.

Now down at the bottom of this fantabulous shindig's programme is an HRC logo. It's also on the Symposium's flyer advertising their keynotes. I wonder how much HRC is paying to help sponsor this event. Registration is $100 and they're flying in two keynotes from the US; there's no way they're covering their costs based on registration fees.

[Update: HRC's Chair, in comments below, confirms that HRC is not providing financial support for the conference. It mirrors the conference materials on its website, its branding is on the conference collateral materials, and it advertises the conference on its website, but that should not be mistaken for HRC support of the event. The paragraph below consequently is struck. Note further that while HRC reports to the Minster of Health and while its Board is appointed by the Minister of Health, it is not part of MoH.]

Update 2: The Taxpayers' Federation reports (18 February) that FIZZ has used HRC's logo without HRC's permission and that HRC is seeking that the logo be removed.

I also wonder why the National government allows its Ministry of Health to fund issue advocacy events like this. Weren't they supposed to be stomping on this kind of thing?

Add to the slippery slopes file. A couple years ago it was SmokeFreeNZ 2025. Now MoH seems to be putting money into a conference pushing an end to soft drinks by 2025. Now it's moving towards ending sugar-based soft drinks. I wonder how long until they want plain packaging for Coke.